Most people start their home search with a national headline. Mortgage rates. Affordability. Inventory. “Is now a good time to buy?”

Those trends matter, but they land differently in each local market. If you are looking near Raleigh and deciding where your money goes farthest, Johnston County becomes the practical next step.

Here is a national-level view of what experts are watching in 2026, plus how to translate it into smart decisions in Johnston County, North Carolina.

1) What the national forecasts say about 2026

Several major housing forecasters are calling for a more balanced year, not a dramatic reset.

• Mortgage rates: Realtor.com projects an average mortgage rate around 6.3% in 2026.
• Home prices: Realtor.com also expects modest price growth nationally, not a big drop.
• Sales volume: Realtor.com expects a small improvement in existing-home sales versus the very low pace of recent years.
• Rate path disagreement: Some outlooks see rates staying mostly above 6% or only dipping briefly, while others see a gradual improvement into late 2026.

The takeaway is simple: forecasters mostly expect 2026 to be steadier, but not “easy”.

2) Why 2026 looks steadier, but not “back to normal”

Nationally, the market is still dealing with a few stubborn realities:

• Rate-sensitive buyers: Even small changes in rates can bring buyers off the sidelines.
• Locked-in sellers: Many homeowners are reluctant to sell if they have much lower mortgage rates from previous years, which can keep inventory tight. (This is widely discussed across major housing outlooks.)
• Down payment pressure: A Realtor.com analysis summarized by Axios found the average household needs nearly seven years to save for a typical down payment, even after improving from the peak challenge a few years ago.

So yes, conditions may improve, but affordability remains the central storyline.

3) The national affordability squeeze and the suburban shift

When affordability stays tight, buyers usually respond in one of three ways:

1. They compromise on the home (smaller, older, fewer features)
2. They compromise on timing (wait, rent longer, save more)
3. They compromise on location (move one ring out for value)

That third option is exactly why suburban and “next-county-over” markets stay active.

Near Raleigh, that often means buyers compare Wake County versus Johnston County when they want more space, more flexibility, or simply a more comfortable monthly payment.

4) What these 2026 national trends could mean for Johnston County buyers

Johnston County tends to attract buyers who want to stay connected to Raleigh, but stretch their budget further. In 2026, the national trends above can show up locally in a few predictable ways.

More buyers will shop by monthly payment, not list price

If mortgage rates hover around the levels forecasters expect, buyers will focus on payment comfort.

That pushes interest toward areas where you can still get the layout and lot size you want without feeling “house poor.”

New construction will stay relevant

When resale inventory is tight, buyers often lean toward new construction because it creates options. National mortgage origination forecasts also suggest activity picking up into 2026, which often aligns with more transactional flow.

“Value locations” near job hubs stay competitive

If the national market is steady and rates do not drop dramatically, the places that offer value without a huge lifestyle penalty often stay competitive. Johnston County fits that pattern for many buyers who want Raleigh access with more room to breathe.

Johnston County’s town-by-town variety becomes a feature

One advantage locally is that Johnston County is not one single “type” of place. Buyers can often choose between:

• Town-centered living (restaurants, local events, downtown proximity)
• Planned communities (amenities, sidewalks, newer homes)
• More rural setups (privacy, larger lots, sometimes well and septic)

This flexibility is exactly what many buyers lose when they limit their search to the most in-demand parts of Wake County.

5) A simple 2026 game plan for buying in Johnston County

If you want to tie national trends to a local win, use this playbook.

Step 1: Pick your “commute direction” first

Decide if your life points mostly toward:

• Downtown Raleigh
• Southeast Raleigh and Garner
• RTP and Durham (if hybrid, say how many days)

This determines where Johnston County feels convenient versus tiring.

Step 2: Choose one of these three strategies

• Strategy A: Payment-first. Optimize for monthly comfort and keep flexibility for life changes.
• Strategy B: Space-first. Prioritize layout, yard, and functionality, then work backward on location.
• Strategy C: Timing-first. If you think rates may dip briefly, be ready with underwriting and a short list so you can move fast if opportunity appears.

Step 3: Do not skip the “rural checklist” if you want land

If your Johnston County search includes larger lots, make sure you confirm early:

• Internet options at the address
• Well and septic details, if applicable
• Restrictions, access, and drainage considerations

Step 4: Shop neighborhoods, not just houses

In a steady market, the home matters, but the neighborhood fit matters more. Your daily routines are what make a place feel right.

6) FAQs

Will home prices drop in 2026?
Most major forecasts call for modest national price growth in 2026, not a broad price crash.

Will mortgage rates go below 6% in 2026?
Some forecasts suggest rates could dip below 6% briefly, while others expect rates to stay mostly between 6% and 6.5%. Plan for “above 6% most of the time,” and treat any dip as a window to act.

Why do Johnston County buyers compare themselves to Wake County buyers?
Because many buyers want Raleigh access, but they want a more comfortable payment, more space, or both.

7) Next steps

If you want a national-trends-smart plan that actually fits your life, send three details:

1. Your commute target (or nearest major area)
2. Budget range
3. Top five must-haves (beds, office, yard, new build vs resale, HOA preference)

We will map those to a short list of Johnston County areas and neighborhoods that make sense for 2026, plus a few Wake County comparables so you can decide with confidence.